Will Deepfakes Impact the UK General Election?
By Fay Capstick
The UK general election is now only a few weeks away. One pressing worry is that AI deepfakes might be used to try and influence how people vote. This week we will focus on this issue, asking what deep fakes are, who might try and do this, whether this has happened before, and what might be done to stop it.
Let’s get started!
What is an AI deepfake?
An AI deepfake is an image, video, or audio recording that has been created using a type of artificial intelligence called deep learning. It can be used to create a fake video, photograph, or audio recording of an event that never happened. This isn’t just a manipulated existing primary source, this is creating something using AI completely from scratch. Plus you don’t even need to be good with computers to make them, there are lots of tools out there to help and even businesses that will do the work for you.
Why is this a problem?
When used for correct reasons, deep learning can help with things like special effects on films. The problem comes when it is used to create events that didn’t happen and pass them off as something that did.
This would be done with the sole aim of trying to trick people into believing something happened.
The consequences of this during an election are worrying, as it might influence how people vote. Even seeing content you know has been deepfaked could exert an influence. Think of it as very advanced photoshopping.
Who might try and do this?
Anyone, individual or organisation, who wants to try and change the result of any election by slurring a candidate.
Is there a precedent of this happening?
Yes, there appears to be. Somewhat predictably, most deepfake videos are pornographic. Beyond that, in the world of business, a fake voice clone of a company CEO resulted in £200,000 being transferred to a fraudster’s bank account.
Obama and Mark Zuckerberg have both had their fake likeness used in videos that have gone viral, and Biden was deepfaked in an audio clip.
More recently the London Mayoral elections were targeted by scammers using fake audio to try and discredit a candidate, the incumbent Mayor, Sidiq Khan.
This month the BBC got Twitter to remove several accounts that were posting deepfaked clips with the sole aim of discrediting specific politicians. This is likely just the tip of the iceberg and evidence suggests that overall social media businesses are not taking the issue seriously enough.
We find this extremely worrying given the damage that could be done to a candidate’s reputation and the democratic process in general.
How can I tell what is real?
Sadly, this will get harder and harder as the technology to trick us gets better and better. There are some clues that exist. For example, a video deepfake human might not blink normally (however this is now much improved). The skin might look uneven in tone. The lip-synch might be slightly out, something our brains are very quick to register. Basically, you are looking for clues. Anything that doesn’t look quite right or natural could be the giveaway.
Another clue is whether this is a clip or recording of something that you would expect? If it is of a politician doing or saying something completely out of the ordinary, assume it is fake until proven otherwise. Unfortunately, human instinct tends to be to believe what we see, especially if it casts that candidate we dislike in a bad light.
What can be done to stop it?
It isn’t going to be possible to stop deepfakes being produced. What might be possible is developing ways to detect them.
In 2020 a Deepfake Detection Challenge was started, backed by Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft. The aim is to speed up how we detect deepfake videos. However, this was started 4 years ago and the problem is only getting worse.
You can learn more about the Deepfake Detection Challenge here: https://ai.meta.com/datasets/dfdc/
What do we think?
It will be hard for a deepfake of any kind to convince people that something huge has occurred, as it will immediately be discredited. We feel that the problem will be one of many smaller, more insidious videos and audio circulating that could be true. They could start to erode and change the public perception of a candidate or political party, which could in turn influence how people vote. Once a video or audio clip has made an impression on us, it is hard to forget, whether or not it is genuine.
Deepfakes could, and likely will, cause a problem for candidates during the UK general election. It is troubling that it is so easy to create fake content in such volume. Propaganda has always been with us but it is the scale and quality of it that is new. The best we can do as voters is to keep our brains turned on, and not believe everything we see on social media. However, this all relies on the voter actively wanting to think about what they are seeing, and mindless scrolling doesn’t involve much thinking.
Conversely, a candidate may try and distance themselves from real but damaging content by claiming that it is deepfaked. Therefore, the quicker accurate detection methods can be established the better, especially if social media companies agree on a policy of removing political ones upon detection as this will limit the damage that they can cause.
We believe that it is highly likely that deepfakes will play a part in the election. This is largely because the election is so close. There isn’t enough time to fully educate people on the mindset needed to spot them. Further, it would require a big effort on the part of social media companies to detect and remove content swiftly. We can only hope that more direct campaigning methods (post, doorstepping) and traditional media (TV and newspaper) can mop up most of the damage that could be done at this election.
Final thoughts
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